Sports betting presents numerous ways to engage with a game, and one of the most straightforward is the moneyline bet. This type of wager is simply a bet on which team or individual will win an event outright. While many bettors gravitate toward the favorite, understanding how to bet moneyline underdog options can unlock significant value and higher potential returns. For beginners, grasping this concept is a fundamental step toward developing a more nuanced betting approach. The underdog is the competitor that sportsbooks deem less likely to win, which is precisely why the payout for a correct underdog bet is more substantial.
What Is a Moneyline Bet?
The moneyline is arguably the most basic form of sports wagering. It strips away point spreads and other complexities, focusing solely on the final outcome. A bettor simply chooses one side to win the game. Every game with a moneyline market will have two key components: the favorite and the underdog. These roles are determined by the sportsbook based on a variety of factors, including team strength, recent performance, injuries, and historical data.
The Two Sides of a Moneyline Wager
In any given matchup, one team is expected to win, and the other is expected to lose. The sportsbook assigns odds to each outcome to reflect this perceived difference in probability and to balance the betting action on both sides.
- The Favorite: This is the team considered more likely to win the contest. Betting on the favorite offers a lower payout because the risk is perceived as lower. Favorites are always indicated by a minus sign (-) in American odds.
- The Underdog: This is the team considered less likely to win. Because victory is a less probable outcome, a successful bet on the underdog yields a much higher return on the initial stake. Underdogs are always identified by a plus sign (+).
How to Read Moneyline Odds for an Underdog
Understanding the odds is crucial before placing any wager. In the United States, sportsbooks primarily use American odds, which are centered around the value of $100. Learning to interpret these numbers allows a bettor to instantly know which team is the underdog and what the potential profit would be.
The Significance of the Plus Sign (+)
The plus sign (+) is the universal indicator of an underdog in American odds. Whenever a bettor sees a team with a plus sign next to its name on the moneyline, that team is projected to lose the game. The number following the plus sign reveals the potential profit on a $100 bet. For example, if a team has odds of +150, it means a $100 wager would result in a $150 profit if that team wins. The original $100 stake is also returned, for a total payout of $250.
Calculating Potential Payouts
The formula for calculating an underdog payout is simple. The odds represent the profit relative to a $100 bet. A bettor does not need to wager exactly $100; the ratio applies to any bet amount.
For instance, consider a moneyline of +200 on the Detroit Lions against the Green Bay Packers. This means:
- A $100 bet on the Lions would win $200 in profit.
- A $50 bet on the Lions would win $100 in profit.
- A $20 bet on the Lions would win $40 in profit.
In each case, the bettor receives their original stake back in addition to the profit. The higher the number after the plus sign, the greater the perceived disparity between the two teams and the larger the potential payout for an upset victory.
| Moneyline Odds | Bet Amount | Potential Profit | Total Payout |
| +120 | $100 | $120 | $220 |
| +180 | $100 | $180 | $280 |
| +250 | $100 | $250 | $350 |
| +250 | $20 | $50 | $70 |
Strategies for Finding Value in Underdogs
Successfully betting on underdogs requires more than just picking the team with the highest potential payout. It involves careful research and analysis to identify situations where the sportsbook may have underestimated a team’s chances of winning. A disciplined strategy can help bettors spot valuable opportunities.
Conduct Thorough Research
Looking beyond the win-loss record is essential. Bettors should analyze specific factors that could influence the outcome of a game. Key areas to research include:
- Recent Form: How has the team performed in its last few games? A team on a winning streak might have more momentum than its record suggests.
- Key Injuries: Is the favorite missing a star player? The absence of a key contributor can level the playing field significantly.
- Head-to-Head Matchups: Some teams consistently perform well against specific opponents, regardless of their overall records. This is often due to stylistic matchups.
- Situational Factors: Consider travel schedules. A favorite playing on the road after a long trip might be more vulnerable than the odds indicate.
Analyze Home and Away Performance
Some teams exhibit drastic performance splits between home and away games. A team that struggles on the road might be a strong favorite at home but a vulnerable one when traveling. Conversely, a team with a mediocre overall record could be a formidable home underdog. Analyzing these splits can reveal hidden value in a moneyline. For example, a team playing in a stadium with a unique environment or difficult weather conditions may have a stronger home-field advantage than usual.
Final Considerations for Betting on Underdogs
Learning how to bet moneyline underdog options is a foundational skill for any sports bettor. It provides a pathway to larger payouts and encourages a deeper level of game analysis. While the risk is inherently higher, the rewards can be substantial when a well-researched underdog secures a victory. It is important to remember that underdogs are priced that way for a reason; they are statistically less likely to win. Therefore, bankroll management and a disciplined approach are critical. By focusing on research, identifying value, and understanding the odds, bettors can make more informed decisions when backing the long shot.
